The Jewish future is already being born

Israel’s changing demography impacts its politics

Israel demonstrates the point dramatically. Its politics have clearly shifted toward a more religious and politically conservative direction in recent decades. There are many reasons for that, and demography certainly isn't the only one. But the changing composition of the population matters enormously.

For example, Israel's Haredi population is currently about 14% of the total. Official projections put it at about 24% by 2050. And because the Haredi population is so young, much of that future is already visible today. That has implications extending far beyond elections. If current patterns of Haredi education, employment and military participation persist, the consequences for Israel's workforce, tax base, educational attainment, military and GDP will be immense.

None of this is predetermined. Haredi society itself changes, as does every other population. People change their minds and identities. Voting patterns alter. Demography is not necessarily destiny. But it changes the terrain on which history happens. Elections take place in a day; electorates take decades to form.

Demography quietly changes Jewish communities in the Diaspora

Israel is an unusually dramatic example, but the principle applies everywhere. Demography quietly changes communities long before we notice they have changed. Our latest JPR research examines Ireland's tiny Jewish community. You probably have some image in your mind of who Irish Jews are. The demographic reality may surprise you. About two-thirds were born outside Ireland, around a quarter were born in Israel, and Israelis and their locally born children probably constitute around a third of the entire Jewish population.

That matters because Jewish communities are not fixed entities. Births, deaths and migration continually change them. Those processes determine whether schools are viable, where synagogues are needed, what social care services will be required, and ultimately the culture, character, and politics of Jewish life.

It never ceases to amaze me how little attention discussions of Diaspora Jewish life pay to demography, and how little investment goes into the painstaking work required to understand it. Jewish communal life understandably prioritises the urgent: running programmes, providing services, raising money and responding to the latest crisis. But beneath it all lie more fundamental questions.  Who are the Jews? How many are there? How old are they? Where do they live? Are they having children? Are they staying or leaving? And how are these metrics projected to change over the years and decades to come?

Good communal strategy has to start with accurate data

At JPR, we uniquely regard that work as foundational, because good communal strategy must start with an accurate understanding of the population it is intended to serve. It is rarely the most glamorous research we do, but it is probably the most important because almost every serious conversation about the Jewish future requires demographic insights and projections, whether those involved recognise that or not.

Should we build another Jewish school? Will a synagogue remain viable twenty years from now? How much elderly care will be needed? Where should communal infrastructure be located? What might Israel's workforce, electorate or army look like in 2050? Again and again, demography sits quietly underneath the questions that matter most.

But it tends to be ignored because it often seems esoteric, and demographic change rarely feels dramatic as it happens. A child is born. Someone moves from London to Tel Aviv, or Tel Aviv to Dublin. Someone dies. None of this makes the news. But multiply those individual moments thousands or millions of times, and societies change.

Headlines tell us what happened yesterday. Surveys tell us what Jews think today. But demography tells us who is most likely to be here tomorrow. And put simply, you cannot shape the Jewish future if you don't understand who is going to inhabit it.